India’s $55 trillion economic dream? Or just a shifting target Or fantasy of Piyush Goyal. This satirical analysis breaks down the Modi government’s wild GDP projections, raising questions about credibility and consistency in India’s economic ambitions.
*To be truthful, in this article the word(s) Modi government shall be construed as ModiGobarmint.
In the saga of India’s economic projections, the government moved from promises of a $5 trillion economy to an eye-watering $55 trillion dream. Yes, you read that right. It started from a figure of $30 trillion, raised to $35 trillion, and then, with a flick of the pen and perhaps few shots of ‘GauMutra’, $55 trillion – all by 2047. With the end of gaumutra hangover, figure was revised to $35 trillion.
These figures, bouncing around like ping pong balls, have been lobbed at us by none other than the Union Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal, with a consistency that defies both logic and, apparently, economic fundamentals.
While these ever-escalating targets may seem laughable to the average citizen(bhakts are below average), the reality is far more troubling. By projecting conflicting targets in such a short span, the government is sending a confusing message to the market, eroding both domestic and international confidence. And when INC Kerala, in their recent tweet, wryly suggested the need for “One Nation, One Piyush Goyal,” they struck a chord with the growing frustration of Indians who are witnessing this charade of ever-shifting numbers.
So, as we navigate through this economic farce, it’s only fair to examine how the Modi government, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, and indeed ‘the One’, Piyush Goyal himself have managed to make even the most resolute optimists and also few of the bhakts, shake their heads in disbelief.
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The $55 Trillion Mirage: How India’s Economic Projections Became A Jumla
In December 2023, Piyush Goyal confidently predicted a $30 trillion economy by 2047. Now, to put that in perspective, India’s current GDP hovers around $3.5 trillion, so the $30 trillion target alone was already ambitious, if not optimistic. But fine, India’s economy is growing, and it’s reasonable to aim high.
Then came February 2024. Just two months after his $30 trillion pronouncement, Piyush Goyal announced India was on track for $35 trillion by 2047. Apparently, our economy was turbocharged enough to add $5 trillion to the target within 60 days. And if that wasn’t enough, in July 2024, he raised the stakes further, proclaiming that with a “stronger currency” and “self-sufficiency,” India could hit $55 trillion by 2047.
A mere five months later, we’re back to $35 trillion. This sudden U-turn (read NaMoTurn) makes one wonder: Are these projections grounded in data, or are they just politically convenient slogans (Jumla) designed to dazzle the public and distract from the real economic challenges? The government’s repeated adjustment of these targets borders on economic theatre, with Piyush Goyal as the lead performer, delivering a new number each time the audience grows restless.
And amidst this spectacle, we can’t help but ask – where are Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in all this? Have they approved this shifting goalpost strategy, or is Piyush Goyal operating in some economic echo chamber of his own? If this is India’s grand vision, one would think a little more cohesion and forethought might be in order.
Why Modi’s Government* Loves Big Numbers
[*Reminder to read and mean Government as ModiGobarmint]
It’s no secret that the Modi government has a penchant for big, bold promises. “Make in India,” “Aatmanirbhar Bharat,” 2 Crore Employment per annum, 15 Lakhs per capita and the infamous $5 trillion economy promise – the government has consistently set lofty goals, even when the underlying economic conditions barely support these ambitions. And who can forget demonetization, a policy that was supposed to uproot black money but instead it turned out to be an act to convert black money into colourful currency notes that wreaked havoc on people and small businesses?
The obsession with high targets and grand declarations has become the government’s trademark style. In a world of optics and perceptions, a $55 trillion dream by 2047 fits neatly into the “New India” and “One…whatever” narrative. But as we’ve seen time and again, rhetoric does not equal reality.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, meanwhile, has largely been an angry spectator in this circus. As the country’s finance chief, her silence on Piyush Goyal’s shifting projections is deafening. Shouldn’t the Finance Ministry be the one to unveil and defend these ambitious targets, rather than letting the Minister of Commerce issue statements that seem pulled from thin air? Or is it simply easier to let Piyush Goyal throw around fanciful figures, leaving the government with plausible deniability when these targets inevitably fall short?
Perhaps the Finance Minister’s office understands that endorsing these figures might be a risk to its already delicate credibility. After all, this is the same ministry that announced a “recovery” even as inflation soared and youth unemployment hit record highs. Instead of holding Goyal accountable for these erratic projections, the silence from Sitharaman’s office seems to suggest an unwillingness to engage with reality.
One Nation, One Confusion: When Governance is Just a Jumla Game
The most absurd part of this economic circus is the lack of accountability. If you and I changed our financial projections every few months, we’d likely find ourselves in deep trouble. But for a government official, it seems there are no repercussions for repeatedly moving the goalposts.
INC Kerala, in their tweet, made an astute observation by suggesting that we need “One Nation, One Piyush Goyal” – a tongue-in-cheek jab at the government’s penchant for “One Nation, One ____” policies. From “One Nation, One Election” to “One Nation, One Ration Card,” the Modi administration has a history of promoting untenable standardisation across sectors. And yet, when it comes to economic projections, even basic consistency is apparently too much to ask.
It’s almost poetic that in a country governed by the idea of “One Nation, One Vision,” we can’t get a single clear target for our economic future. At this rate, the only predictable thing about India’s economic ambitions is that they’ll change every few months, with Piyush Goyal at the helm, releasing fresh projections that seem to serve more as distractions than as genuine goals.
Thank You, INC Kerala, for Pointing Out the Emperor’s New Clothes
As much as this piece highlights the government’s shambolic economic messaging, we must acknowledge those who call it out. A special thanks goes to INC Kerala for keeping a sharp eye on this economic rollercoaster and reminding us of the reality behind the rhetoric. Their tweet may be satirical, but it serves an important function – shedding light on how this government’s propaganda machine operates, propping up hollow figures and lofty promises without real accountability.
By keeping tabs on ministers who prefer lofty declarations over actionable policies, INC Kerala has done the public a service. In an era where propaganda often overshadows truth, having opposition voices call out the farce helps maintain a semblance of transparency, even if the government’s communication leaves much to be desired.
The Market Needs Certainty, Not Carnival Numbers or Jumlas
At the end of the day, economic stability requires clear, credible goals that inspire confidence among investors, both domestic and foreign. Constantly revising these targets to make headlines undermines not only the government’s credibility but also the market’s trust. For India to truly become a global economic power, we need well-planned strategies, not a rotating list of inflated figures.
It’s time the Modi government stopped treating economic projections as mere talking points and started delivering consistent, actionable policies. And perhaps it’s time for Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to weigh in, lest her silence become as confusing as Piyush Goyal’s projections. Because in the end, when the dust settles and the Jumlas fade, all that remains are the numbers – the real ones, not the flashy targets tossed around to keep the public entertained.